Aluminum circle production requires multiple processes (e.g. stamping), with scrap rates as high as 10-15% and lower efficiency, resulting in prices that are typically 10-20% higher than aluminum sheet. Based on the current ingot price, the aluminum circle latest price could be in the range of US$3,300-3,500/tonne after adding the processing premium. However, special specifications or customized demand may further push up prices.
Core factors affecting aluminum circle prices are:
- Raw Material Costs
The price of aluminum ingots directly determines the cost of aluminum circles. Aluminum prices are currently supported by tight supply and demand, energy costs (e.g., electricity accounts for 30-40% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum) and policies, and are bullish in the long term. Fluctuations in the price of auxiliary materials, such as alumina, are also transmitted to the cost of aluminum circles.
- Processing technology and efficiency
Complex stamping processes, high scrap rates and the need for customized tooling result in higher production costs for aluminum circles than aluminum sheets, so the aluminium circle price is higher than that of aluminium sheet.
- Supply and Demand
Supply side: China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to the 45 million-ton ceiling, and new production capacity is limited; the energy crisis in Europe has led to the closure of part of the production capacity, exacerbating the global supply tightness.
Demand side: Rapid growth in demand from green industries such as new energy vehicles (30% increase in single-vehicle aluminum consumption) and photovoltaics (16,000 tons of aluminum per GW), offsetting weakness in traditional sectors (such as real estate).
- Policy and geopolitical risks
U.S. tariffs, the EU's carbon border tax (CBAM) and China's “dual carbon” policy affect trade flows and cost structures. Geo-events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict could disrupt the supply chain (e.g. Russian aluminum export restrictions).
Future Price Trend Forecast
1. Short-term (2024-2025)
- Positive factors: new energy demand growth, low global inventories (LME aluminum stocks down 60% from peak) and supply shortages (JP Morgan expects a shortfall of more than 600,000 tons in 2025) support prices.
- Negative factors: the risk of recession in Europe and the United States, domestic consumption off-season may inhibit short-term gains.
- Forecast range: Aluminum prices may oscillate at 3,000-3,500 dollars/ton, corresponding to aluminum circle prices may rise to $3,500-4,000/ton range.
2. Medium to long term (2026-2030)
Driven by green transformation, the average annual growth rate of aluminum demand may reach 5%-7%, superimposed on the carbon tax policy to push up the cost, aluminum prices are expected to enter a long cycle upward channel, and even break through the historical highs (LME aluminum price in 2022 had reached $4,073/ton). Aluminum circle prices are likely to climb further.
As of March 2025, the price of aluminum will vary due to market volatility, but generally speaking, the aluminum circle latest price is between $3,300 and $3,500 per ton. The exact price of aluminum circle may be affected by factors such as material specifications, thickness, market demand and availability. If you need the exact price, please contact us and we will give you a quotation at the first time.